A Kind of CERAWeek Consensus: Natural Gas Rules the Next-Gen Bridge to Future Infrastructure Growth

She now heads up the group Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future, which advocates for using more natural gas as a bridge fuel that offers both baseload and flexible generation in this new era of a so-called Industrial Compute Age.

Landrieu remembers the bygone world of flat load growth, of more predictable demand scenarios, and of coal, gas and nuclear power plant retirements in the rush to interconnect more solar and wind to the grid.

“Well that never really was going to work,” she corrected. “Let’s roll up our sleeves and get to work. Stop leaving anything on the table and let’s do offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, gas, oil and even new technologies like geothermal. Natural gas is probably our quickest and fastest option, and we say that because it’s more plentiful.”

This stance was clearly in vogue with many at CERAWeek, which always has been a global oil and gas conference peppered with experts and enthusiasts on renewables and even nuclear. This week, however, the consensus was “all of the above” more than ever.

Natural gas-fired generation likely must lead the way because it can be built cheaper and faster than nuclear power but also offers dispatchable-scale electricity that renewables and battery storage cannot match for now.

Todd Brezler, senior vice president for digital transformation at power generation equipment manufacturer Mitsubishi Power, noted that his company has seen an uptick in corporate and utility orders for aeroderivative gas turbines, a logical choice in behind-the-meter and off-grid power project development. In fact, Mitsubishi’s aeroderivative inventory is sold out as part of this rush to site or co-locate islanded power near data centers and AI factories.

“It’s very much power now,” Brezler told EnergyTech. “It’s a challenge to keep up.”

The U.S. exploration and production sector is nearly three decades into its natural gas shale drilling revolution and now has elevated itself and the nation as the world’s top exporter of liquified natural gas. In the same period, the natural gas portion of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation has doubled to now more than 40%.

Meanwhile, data center load growth is expected to expand by maybe 125 GW in the coming decade. Considering the U.S. utility grid is currently lagging in the infrastructural ability to deal with this growth, data-AI hyperscalers and other industrial customers are considering on-site and co-located power generation most easily served by natural gas and co-located renewables. Advanced nuclear can join in later.

“You’ve got to have reliability, and you’ve got to have dispatchable power,” Mitsubishi Power’s Brezler pointed out. “Without those it’s hard to power AI. . . So there’s a lot of interest in gas turbines for the next decade, and it looks like the right solution.”

Sen. Landrieu hails from a state—Louisiana—with deep roots in oil and gas, including LNG infrastructure. Brezler works for a global original equipment manufacturer with a storied history in gas turbine development.

Both are certainly influenced by those facts, but they are only part of a consensus that baseload natural gas, next-gen nuclear and renewables paired with battery storage must grow the power generation pie in the coming decades.

The age of abundance is upon us with respect to energy demand. We have no choice but to meet the moment head-on.

“If you don’t have reliability, you’re not going to have economic growth,” Brezler said.

The "holistic" path to embracing baseload generation

CERAWeek is attended by energy experts from all over the world, and often their national political leaders in the sector. From European energy ministers to U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and some of his predecessors, the path forward is becoming more obvious.

Baseload, flexible and plentiful.

“The simple math is that we need way more energy,” Secretary Wright said during a Next-Gen Amphitheater session mainly with energy students at CERAWeek.

“They desperately need to see faster generation,” he noted, highlighting the national desire to accommodate hyperscalers and win any global AI race. “And we want energy sources besides hydrocarbons, absolutely. We need solar, nuclear, fusion. . . We need to look at everything holistically. We should be looking at the whole energy system.”

The supply-side mission was a priority on the interconnection side from the 1950s to 1970s, when a large part of the existing nuclear generation fleet was first commissioned. Since, coal plants are being retired and almost certainly won’t return to their previous prominence, while GWs of nuclear power were also shut down for economic reasons.

Natural gas is king--at least in the U.S.-- for today and tomorrow whether it’s universally desired or acknowledged or not. Digital necessity is the mother of modern invention, and gas-fired generation is the bridge fuel selected to deliver the biggest wave of energy required for AI factories and supercomputing capacity.

And those hyperscalers such as Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are not only compelled, but increasingly eager to help. They are pushing for faster power generation which can initially be built off-grid and later interconnected.

And they seem willing to pay for it, which is nice because energy affordability is certainly a critical concern in an era of unprecedented demand.

“These guys started getting their heads in the game and said, ‘ok, let’s see about solutions,” former Sen. Landrieu said. “These are some of the smartest people on the planet, and they are taking a little bit more control and responsibility.

“They will bring energy to the table,” she added. “They will help figure out a way with utilities and cooperatives to get more molecules on the grid and potentially lower the price for everyone. The greater the supply, the lower the price.”

And that push for super-abundance opens a lot of doors for a lot of resources. Geothermal investment is rising, while next-gen nuclear investment is rising and renewable PPAs are not going away. Resiliency and sustainability are still the goals of companies seeking to thrive in a commercial and industrial energy transition.

“The global economy is going to need a lot more energy from every source possible,” Amit Chandra, managing director and head of climate technology within the energy transition group at global banking giant Barclay’s, said during a second-day session at CERAWeek.

John Kotek, senior vice president of policy development and public affairs at the advocacy group Nuclear Energy Institute, touted nuclear generation as the future-forward destination bridging both emissions reduction and baseload addition.

“We’ve worked hard to be recognized for the clean energy attributes that nuclear delivers,” Kotek said during the same session with Chandra. “It’s the largest source of carbon-free electricity in the U.S. and many countries.”

Energy Secretary Wright would certainly concur that. He is bullish on next-gen nuclear, leading a DOE initiative to encourage development and achievement in small modular reactor criticality in pilot phase by this July 4, making the nation’s 250^th birthday.

“Nuclear got rolling in the 1950s, and then was stifled later,” he said. “It’s easier stopping things than doing things.”

The current nuclear renaissance, as some have called it, is led by deals such as Microsoft’s multi-billion-dollar power purchase deal with Constellation that will finance reopening of the Three Mile Island Unit 1. Industrial firms such as Dow and Big Tech hyperscalers such as Google are also exploring SMR nuclear deals to power their manufacturing and computing operations, respectively.

“Nuclear is not close to competing with natural gas (price-wise) right now,” Secretary Wright added. “But it will be in the long run.”

Wright’s mantra, as such, could be boiled into these words: “Let’s not be the country where we don’t build stuff anymore.” Read White House Report on Building Data Center Infrastructure.

This intransigence has stalled momentum for U.S. bridges, manufacturing and energy infrastructure in recent decades. And now the nation must scramble and forge creative, safe ways to accelerate power generation capacity by every resource that makes sense and can be scaled.

“Our multiple energy resources allow us to continue to be the most advanced economy in the world,” former Sen. Landrieu pointed out. “We need to remain open and moving forward. Let’s not be afraid.”

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