From Sunshine to Peak Chaos: How Renewable Energy Handles Big Beautiful Hail Storm

The rise of renewable energy in the U.S. has marched upward seemingly immune to the political pendulum which jerks right and left every four years or so.

Solar installed capacity has skyrocketed even as the cost and time for deployment shrunk. It’s a free-market success story writ large with bright photovoltaic energy, even if the technology has been helped along by various subsidies and tax credits through the years.

These economic incentives are going to be gone soon, at least on the federal level. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage ensures a cessation of many renewable energy credits, while President Trump’s various executive orders and federal regulatory moves are invariably slowing what has exponential growth of solar, wind and battery storage in the past decade.

Time may be renewable energy’s best friend to survive the latest political pushback.

“This administration likes natural gas and nuclear but those cannot come online quickly,” Jessica Lawrence-Vaca, chief commercial officer of solar-tracker firm Array Technologies, said during a kickoff session at the RE+ energy conference in Las Vegas. “If we’re going to be energy dominant and win the AI race,” she added, echoing a key priority of the Trump Administration, “they need to realize what’s actually feasible.”

The tensions and headwinds bearing down on the renewable energy industry in the past eight months were under intense focus at RE+. The industry event follows a tumultuous eight-month stretch in which Trump and Republicans have achieved a sun-setting of many renewable tax credits and targeting key provisions of the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act.

Republicans and Democrats in charge have come and gone since solar energy began expanding at an exponential rate beginning early in the 21st century. Solar was breaking installed capacity records nearly every year.

This year, however, the sustained opposition to allowing an easier path for solar and wind is finally having a notable, if not devastating impact on the numbers.

The multiple years of momentum probably will reverse slightly, noted Sean Gallagher of Solar Energy Industries Association, with forecasts about 10% down on expected annual solar installation in the U.S.

So while the efficiency of the solar industry in driving down costs and improving capacity should keep it relevant even through the Big Beautiful Bill years, the push in favor of gas and nuclear while putting brakes on solar and offshore wind cannot help but hurt the industry some.

The Trump tariffs, which seem to be ever evolving, also are bringing the industry to a period of “peak chaos,” Kevin Smith, CEO of developer Arevon Energy, said in the RE+ panel. Smith himself confirmed he didn’t believe that tax credits should last forever, but believed the uncertainty will hurt construction timetables.

“I think we’re going to see (project) delays across the industry,” Smith added. “The dams are going to burst, with thousands of requested projects not getting built and demand rising. . . We are going to have changes or there are data centers that won’t get built.”

Gas-fired and nuclear power generation need five years and often much more to proceed from design, permitting, interconnection approval, construction and commissioning. Solar and battery storage can be built in half that time or sooner.

“One thing that industries do crave is predictability,” said Brian Nelson, ABB’s renewables segment leader, in an exclusive interview with EnergyTech at RE+.

“Private equity is still a huge believer in renewables because it’s getting faster and cheaper to get electrons on the grid, “ Nelson noted. “Renewables are going to get built no matter what.”

RE+, one of the clean energy industry’s biggest events, runs through Wednesday at the Venetian and Caesar’s Forum in Las Vegas. The conference is led by the Solar Energy Industries Association and the Smart Electric Power Alliance.