A Billion Tons of CO2 Lighter, but a Heavier Path Forward?

Environmental critics that decarbonization efforts in energy are not working in the U.S. must not be looking at the term long-numbers.

The federal government reports this month that per-capita energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell at least 20% over the past two decades.

However, anyone who is satisifed to see this and takes that environmental progression for granted is not looking at the current political climate and where it is focusing its tailwind and headwind efforts.

Total CO2 emissions estimates from the generated and consumed energy sectors totaled about 4.78 billion metric tons in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Those estimates were more than a billion metric tons of CO2 less than the estimated emissions output counted in 2003, the EIA page indicates.

Natural gas has risen dramatically as the top utility-scale power generation fuel resource in the past two decades and accounted for 1.75 billion metric tons of emitted CO2, the report shows, This is about 40% higher than the 1.2 billion metric tons produced from gas-fired power in 2003.

The closing and retirement of once dominant coal-fired power, however, dropped from 2.13 billion to less than 800 million metric tons of CO2, according to EIA. Less emissions from coal more than overcame the rise of shale gas.

“CO2 emissions across the country primarily declined because less coal was burned in the electric power sector,” reads the EIA executive summary from the state energy data system report. “Increased electricity generation from natural gas, which releases about half as many CO2 emissions per unit of energy when combusted as coal—and from non-CO2 emitting wind and solar generation—offset the decrease in coal generation.”

Per-capita CO2 emissions from utility-scale and direct energy consumption decreased in every state from a period ranging from 2005 to 2023, according to the EIA. Considering that the U.S. population also grew about 14% in that period, the real decrease in CO2 emissions is closer to 30%.

In just the last seven years, the portion and wind and solar in the U.S. electricity resource portfolio has more than double. Together, utility-scale wind and solar totaled more than 300 GW of overall capacity by 2023, compared with close to 125 GW in 2018.

Solar and battery storage capacity continues to grow, at least through this year, reports show. Wind’s momentum already has slowed, and the Trump Administration is now actively resisting and delaying some offshore wind projects.

The Trump Administration’s successful push to pass and sign the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law also ensures that numerous renewable energy project tax credits will be ended by 2027. The administration is accelerating its support behind liquified natural gas, domestic gas-fired power capacity and future small modular nuclear reactors to feed future AI data centers.

One sign of the potential reversal in fortune of renewable energy projects is research by Wood Mackenzie indicating that community solar installations fell to 437 MW for the first half of 2025. This is a 36% decline from the pace exactly one year ago, according to WoodMac report done in collaboration with the Coalition for Community Solar access. 

At the same time, however, overall energy storage installation in the U.S. grew a record. 5.6 GW in the second quarter of 2025, according to a report partnered by WoodMac and the American Clean Power Association. 

One speaker at the recent RE+ conference in Las Vegas called this period of political reversal on decarbonization policy as “peak chaos,” which includes uncertainty about project investment and tariffs. Others, however, said free market values and customer demand pointed to positive future deployment in solar energy’s favor.

“This administration likes natural gas and nuclear but those cannot come online quickly,” Jessica Lawrence-Vaca, chief commercial officer of solar-tracker firm Array Technologies, said during a kickoff session at the RE+ energy conference. “If we’re going to be energy dominant and win the AI race,” she added, echoing a key priority of the Trump Administration, “they need to realize what’s actually feasible.”

Earlier this year, the Trump Administration also paused all National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funding programs while also terminating $3.7 billion in decarbonization projects, such as carbon capture and storage, that were previously approved late in the Biden era.

Once again, the federal government’s own EIA earlier this month forecast that energy-related CO2 emissions would rise 1.5% this year and fall 0.5% in 2026. These projections are assuming slowing growth in near future gross domestic product.

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