Hydrogen's Conundrum: Matching Supply, Demand and the Scalability Factor

If the energy sector was a version of reality TV like "Love Island"—and let’s thank our lucky stars that it’s not—the romantic irony of hydrogen would certainly draw our attention and, sometimes, frustration. H2 is the character with so much attraction, so much energy and yet so tough to understand.

So much seemingly within reach and yet playing so hard to get.

Hydrogen is the lightest and most abundant chemical element in the universe, fueling nuclear fusion on stars and elevating industrial processes in the petrochemical, refining and agricultural industries here on Earth. H2 emits no carbon dioxide at the point of use and promises a future of energy-dense clean power generation.

All we must do is create a functional H2 infrastructure all around us, not just in petrochemical havens but in the heartland of power generation. Such a thing would elevate hydrogen into the top realm of the electricity and industrial fuel chain.

The holdout is us, because what is all around us is so difficult to scale; it’s expensive to produce and yet perhaps we cannot afford not to scale it somehow, someday.

“H2 is important as a long-term solution because it is an infinite source of energy,” pointed out Tim La Valle, creator and host of the H2 Liftoff podcast, in an interview with EnergyTech. “It can be produced wherever there is renewable energy and water, it can be stored indefinitely, and it can be traded as a commodity. It has all the attributes of a preferred, long-term energy solution.”

Indeed, for decades now hydrogen enthusiasts and entrepreneurs have intrigued us with visions of carbon-free long-haul transportation via H2 fuel cell engines, as well as clean energy farms powering electrolyzers producing green hydrogen—the carbon-freest of H2 products—for the nation’s utility-scale power. It is surely a decarbonizing force for good, if only it can overcome issues of supply chain and competitive economic viability.

H2 Infinity and Beyond

The Free EnergyTech E-Book

Right now, gasoline and natural gas are kings of the road, while wind, solar, nuclear and hydro help decarbonize the grid. Hydrogen is still the slow-moving challenger to the throne.

And the challenger is not cheap. One kilogram of hydrogen is about the energy equal of a gallon of gasoline, according to the U.S. Department of Energy and others. In recent times, the cost to produce one kilogram of H2 by electrolysis—which is splitting the hydrogen atoms from water—can range between $4 to $6 per kilogram just at the production level. Add in distribution costs and ultimately the wholesale expense is close to $7 or $8 per kilogram, well above the nearly $4 retail price for gasoline in many regions.

Bringing H2 to the masses in an affordable, competitive way

Hydrogen is super abundant in nature but not in the shale oil and gas way where we can drill down, refine and harness it en masse. Hydrogen is everywhere but embeds itself within other elements. It is usually generated either by steam reforming of methane gas or by electrolyzers. Because it is so light and combustible, the movement of hydrogen cannot simply be moved along the nation’s existing natural gas pipeline infrastructure without some kind of capital-intensive update to hold and transport it safely.

Over time, perhaps as soon as five to 10 years, a host hydrogen entrepreneurs are confident that the energy and carbon-free value of hydrogen will gain momentum in the marketplace. The Trump Administration’s move to end production tax credits and other subsidies for wind and solar should help level the playing field for resources, such as hydrogen and nuclear, which can provide baseload-level power for extended periods to meet future demand from data centers and AI training models. (Editor’s note: The Trump and GOP “Big Beautiful Budget Bill” also sunsets the 45V hydrogen production tax credit but extends that ending all the way through 2027).

“I think we’ll see a lot happen in the U.S.,” said Whitaker Irvin Jr., CEO of startup Q Hydrogen, which is working on unveiling a purported new option in hydrogen production at a former power plant and paper mill in New Hampshire. A former Raytheon engineer, Irvin Jr. has spent years helping ready Q’s process for entry into the public marketplace and production, although he is still relatively non-specific about how Q technology works (more on that later).

“I think Trump is operating from a place of practicality and money,” Irvin added. “We spent a lot of time providing subsidies for industries which cannot stand on their own. We do have to find new ways of funding more sustainable energy resources.”

Right now is a tough time to find competitive footing for alternative energy resources not already scaled up. U.S. production from oil and gas drilling are stabilizing at historic levels, so much so that the nation is now a net exporter of liquified natural gas, while solar, wind and battery storage installation—in cases buoyed by incentives but consistently leading new generation additions—are constantly setting new records.

Many purposes for H2 in many lands

Hydrogen, though, is a valuable energy carrier, and from it it also can produce ammonia both for agricultural and maritime transportation purposes. It might prove its worth as an energy player in decarbonizing regions which struggle to produce enough resources to meet demand on their own.

“Northeast Asia and Europe: Both will more than likely require more energy that they can produce, so energy will have to be imported” La Valle noted. “Hydrogen, at some point, could be that future energy source if nuclear energy is technically not feasible or cost prohibitive.”

Yes, nuclear itself Is hugely expensive and comes with safety concerns borne out by events such as Chernobyl and Fukushima. Oil and gas, meanwhile, are currently abundant but come at an environmental cost, and drillers keep having to drill deeper.

Solar and wind? Well, as the adage goes, the sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow.

Enter hydrogen (yes we know it’s always here). Forms of H2 are engaged in experiments trying to achieve commercial-scale nuclear fusion, which is another dream project for dreamers and engineers seeking the future holy grail on abundant, energy-dense and carbon-free power.

With hydrogen, the tried-and-true methods have been steam reforming and electrolysis. The promise emanating from the next generation of H2 startups, such as Q Hydrogen, is that there are new inventions to split energy from water.

Minding the Qs in a hydrogen future

Q Hydrogen is headquartered in Park City, Utah, but focused on delivering its first commercial-scale project in New Hampshire. The company is the brainchild of the Irvins, starting with the father, Whitaker Sr., who was working on finding new ways to solve issues in industrial heating and cooling.

Eventually, Whitaker Irvin Sr. opted to focus on hydrogen production, and his son, Whit Jr., who had been working for defense contractor Raytheon, came on board to help push the company toward commercialization. Test work commenced in Utah with a 12.5-MW project, but the company settled on locating its first planned commercial plant at the site of an old paper mill and power plant in Groveton, New Hampshire.

Calling it the “world’s first power plant completely fueled by clean, affordable clear hydrogen,” Irvin Jr. said, the Q generator will use water from the nearby Upper Ammonoosuc River, routing the water in a cement pre-processing tank to remove particulate matter then process it against magnetic components, utilizing a turbine to produce hyperbolic wave form geometrics and create an interaction of high and low pressure zones.

At some point, Irvin Jr. says, a massive energy exchange takes place and usable green hydrogen is produced. He would not offer much more detail except to say that the Q Hydrogen is valid and has secured support from former New Hampshire U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu and has on its leadership team Gary Morris, the onetime chief financial officer of oilfield services firm Halliburton when former Vice President Dick Cheney was CEO.

“My father is the developer of that technology,” Whitaker Irvin Jr. said. “He was an industrialist in Latin America, working with companies which created pumping systems.

“He originally had a theory with the geometry I mentioned, on how to create a turbine with differentiators. . . etched into the turbine plate surface and create two different flows of air.”

Within that interaction, and others, reportedly Q’s hydrogen is produced at a relatively low temperature rate. And while Irvin is relatively non-specific about the proprietary technology within Q Hydrogen’s business plan, he is confident that the New Hampshire plant can produce about 10 MW of energy per day very soon, and perhaps as high as 100 MW eventually.

“It takes people who are committed long term, and we’re had continuous progress,” Irvin Jr. said. “There’s not been a point where we really stalled.”

Speeding up the scaling up

Whether Q Hydrogen achieves its promises and goals, or whether the world continues with steam reforming combined with carbon capture or electrolyzers creating H2 from water or pyrolysis, the drive toward a hydrogen economy is a gathering force for good, its biggest enthusiasts contend.

“It is a tall order, but it is technically possible and can be achieved if the demand for hydrogen increases,” said La Valle, of the H2 Liftoff Podcast. “The demand will increase when the consumer becomes away of the attributes and benefits of hydrogen.”

La Valle is an H2 true believer, while Irvin Jr. and his team at Q Hydrogen are financially determined to create H2 at an economically scaled level. The Irvins believe that success is around the corner, because a baseload-level and carbon-free resource is required to meet future energy demand from an increasingly electrified industrial sector.

We’ve heard that before. And we’ve seen H2 fuel cell and other electrolyzer inventions fade away, pushing that “it’s always 10 years away” scenario even further out.

Hydrogen believers are not deterred. It’s H2 infinity and beyond for them.

“Yes, we can get there,” Irvin Jr. said. “It may five-ish years. It’s not going to take a decade.”

While skepticism is understandable, incredible progress has been made on H2 infrastructure in Europe and beyond. Forbes has noted there is currently nearly $1 trillion in hydrogen projects underway worldwide.

Maybe the moment is nearly here, and the hydrogen future will be without our hands, not playing hard to get so much anymore.